Why are long-term rates already high when the Fed has just cut short rates? This post works through the numbers of locking in vs rolling over, shows how the yield curve forecasts recovery or slowdown, and explains why bank stocks swing more than the economy.
How does the Fed actually set interest rates, and why don’t long-term yields always follow? This post covers the federal funds rate, how the yield curve steepens and flattens, what “bull” and “bear” mean, and how the curve changes through each phase of the business cycle.
Why do bond prices fall when yields rise? This primer covers what a bond is, how yield to maturity works, and why long bonds swing more than short ones. It works through a $1,000, 4% bond and shows that growth stocks have “duration” too.
This blog post explains why the standard “speed limit” (Black-Scholes) fails to predict market crashes, leading to the “Volatility Smirk” driven by investor fear. It clarifies the difference between Implied Volatility (your average trip speed) and Local Volatility (your speedometer’s exact wiggle at a specific price), stripping away the math jargon to reveal the human story of risk behind the formulas.